Free Syrian Army started their attempt to break the siege of Aleppo this morning. This seems to include about 5000 fighters concentrated, including vehicles and tanks. The attack is lead by the bulk of the foreign Mujahideen, consisting of the islamistic Jaish al-Fatah and their subdivisions, Jahbat Fatah Al-Sham (Nusra), with almost all minor and moderate rebel groups having joined this operation afterwards.
Rebels burn tyres in Aleppo to hamper a clear view for airplanes:
Already yesterday the spiritual rebel leader 'Sheikh Muheisni' gave reference on the upcomming battle:
In the name of God, the Battle has begun...
In the name of God, (people) will be shredded into pieces
You will retun either victorious or martyred...
O sunni guys do you know how many are besieged?
100.000 sisters and girls are on siege...
The regime can take one of these girls tomorrow and rape her and you just keep watching?...
We are telling the regime that you've made the worst mistake in your entire life...
If you open only 4 corridors for Aleppo we will conquer Aleppo and we will open it all...
If this would be a game, the caption would probably say:
...all new maps with new villages to devastate.
The territorial gains on the map above can be considered confirmed. The frontline has already been report to have reached Al-Nasr, with the rebels occupying already 70% of the district. There are also reports about spreading panic and retreating troops. Meanwhile the government forces deny and present itself capable of the situation. And there are the (usual) rumors about the high rank government officers and the Aleppo governor recently having escaped the city.
Islamists of Ahrar Al-Sham staging for combat.
There are also fights in southern rural Aleppo countryside supporting the urban attack. Footage can be seen here:
footage: rebels staging for the battle of Aleppo, July 31st, 2016. 720p Pro government media
Al Masdar News, usually excellently informed by the syrian military, reported already on July 29th about rebel convoys from the Latakia frontline towards Aleppo, which must have been bombed heavily. They also pointed out:
However, if the Syrian Arab Army was to take control of Aleppo city, the Jaish al-Fatah leadership is well aware that Idlib province will be its next target, threatening the existential survival of the Islamist coalition.This is so true. If Aleppo falls to the government, the rural province of Idlib will be the final battleground for the Free Syrian Army and all islamists groups within. There are barely any islamists in northern Aleppo along the turkish border, and none within the US-controlled New Syrian Army. Rural combat exposes their fighters to syrian/russian coalition airstrikes, leaving little chances for victory.
Now rebels weakend their Latakia frontline to threw into battle what can be considered a last reserve. The FSA in Idlib province faces decreasing support from Turkey and the western coalition and has to rely on declining support of patrons mainly focussing on the islamistic groups providing goods that need to be shipped via Turkey. They agreed on Assads war of attrition and now they lose it. Each day they lose fighting power, hardly getting the chance to compensate. If this operation is failing, rebels lose probably all initiative combat abilities, unable to conduct offensive operations on their own in the future. Question is: how many reserves does Assad have?
