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« on: 01-07-2015, 10:07:19 »
Greece is a complex problem. Most likely too complex for us to make any vaild statement about it. What is clear, though, is that mistakes have been made by both sides.
The first mistake was probably letting Greece into the Euro based on falsified accounting created by some bought-off advisory agency.
Now, with the crisis reigning over the world for the past seven years, things have been made even worse. Papandreou introduced all those austerity measures, but what did he really do about the underlying problems? Nothing. Corruption is still running rampant throughout the Greek system, the shipping companies are still paying their taxes abroad, and tax evasion in general is still the national sport. Poverty in Greece has been on the rise along with unemployment, and nobody really knows where all the money went to.
Now, during the last elections, along comes Tsipras, who promises to get rid of the mindless austerity measures introduced by his predecessors, and to get Greece back on the rails. Of course people will vote for him.
But he is forced to fight an uphill battle. It's not so much a trenchfight, but more that he is stuck in a pit, dug by his predecessors, with the EU, the ECB, and the IMF standing around said pit with rifles.
Tsipras' efforts to stick by his election promises are commendable. It has become a rare thing among politicians. But now neither side is willing to budge, and Tsipras seemingly has the best reasons not to budge. All the measures I've heard of are designed to make even more cuts in pensions, public spending, etc. But those are the areas that are keeping Greece afloat. More and more people, even in banking, are saying that the EU isn't paying attention to the Greek citizens anymore, and I agree with that. It seems that the EU and other debtors are only interested in getting their precious money back at any cost.
This very well may be pure hearsay, but I've heard that there even was a deal on Sunday, but then Lagarde came storming in with some extra conditions, to which Greece had to abide, on the request of some developing country.
Cronyism isn't purely a Greek thing.
As for those muckers in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and whatnot, they are a perfect example of 21st century colonialism gone wrong. The unlawful American intervention in the Middle East destabilised the very precarious balance the countries there were in. The Taliban and Al Qaeda came and filled the voids. Both groups being conglomerates of different ethnic and religious groups, it's not wonder that they would one day split up and start on their own.
Come the Arab Spring in 2011. In Libya, things go horribly wrong. Qaddafi refuses to step down and a civil war breaks out. We Western countries believe it is a good idea to start bombing Libya like we did in the eighties. It worked, Qaddafi was ousted and we didn't follow up with the necessary guidance and disarmament.
In Syria, a civil war also breaks out, but we let it simmer, due to our indecisiveness. And lo and behold, several extremist Jihadi groups spring up (ISIS, Al Nusra,...). We wait some more. All of the sudden, young Muslims from Western countries start travelling to Syria to go and fight a little Jihad. Political pandemonium nearly breaks out in Europe. How did they become so radicalised in such a short time, they ask. Answer: mainly the internet, backed up by radical imams that we imported so carelessly, and the lack of political will to crack down on such people.
By 2014, ISIS had extorted enough money from the local people and foreign fighters to seriously expand their area of influence, barging into Iraq, capturing oil supplies and more territory. By now they are a self-sufficient entity, certainly with the capture of a lot of heavy weaponry from the Iraqi army.
And all we do is bomb them, without any sign of progress.
More seriously, foreign fighters are returning from the warzone, bent on causing panic back in their home countries. Charlie Hebdo, the Bardo museum, last Friday's attacks, ... are only the beginning of what I fear to be a long and deadly campaign.
Einstein once said he didn't know what weapons would fight the next world war, but that the fourth would be fought with sticks and stones. I don't believe it would come to that, but I do believe the next war in Europe will be a very messy one.