Not sure exactly what is going on. I read a few threads from 2015 that talked about something going on with the servers and some people having this issue, but there never seemed to be a conclusion.
All that happens is I run the launcher, press play with my online account selected, and then it tries to start the game, the screen goes black, and it ctd's. Trying it with an offline account works, but when I try to select an online account and login, it says "server has refused connection".
Anyway, it seems to have gotten sorted out eventually last time, so I have a feeling it will be fine.