Picture of the Day (Other eras)

[MaJ.P.Bouras]

Is this going to turn into a new Korea? Or is this really what MGS4 was talking about?

[Dukat]

That moment when your date isn't ready for lunch yet and you're having a smoke with the boys downstairs.

[VonMudra]

MEANWHILE, the Russians just obliterated a UN Aid Convoy, killing multiple UN Aid workers, as well as the head of the Syrian Branch of the Red Crescent.

[Dukat]

That moment when you argue about who gets to drive the VBIED (Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosion Device) but then remember you're with the Islamic State thus you can go all together.

[Hjaldrgud]

So... Who do the war gods favor in this war as of say the last 2-3 months? Who is having a good time and who is having a bad time?

SAF: Okay time?
FSA: Kinda shitty time?
IS: Very shitty time?
Kurds: Okay time?

Am I getting it or totally not?

[VonMudra]

IS has continued to lose ground.  Kurds got some major gains, but are now embroiled in the disputes with the Turks, and are dealing with how to keep moving towards autonomy without bringing down the Turkish military on them.

The FSA has been doing well only when they're able to concentrate their forces in an area- generally at the loss of other areas.  Their most recent Hama offensive basically stripped their forces from the Aleppo area and led to the rollback of all their gains and the rebirth of the siege of eastern Aleppo.

The SAA continues to do just as poorly as the FSA in combat (often ridiculously so), but backed by Russian air power can continue to hold out against the FSA, helped by the FSA's own stratigic blunders like the utterly useless Hama offensive.

[pizzzaman]

"Turkish TSK Sabra M60T in preparation for the offensive on al-Bab"

It seems like both the Kurdish and FSA/Turk forces want the important city Al-Bab. The question is who will reach it first?

[Dukat]

It seems like both the Kurdish and FSA/Turk forces want the important city Al-Bab. The question is who will reach it first?

YPG will not advance west of Euphrate. YPG is supposed to withdraw towards the eastern Euphrate bank. They don't really do. Without coordination with the turkish dominated FSA, they'd leave a vacuum easily to be filled by ISIS again. They want to keep Manbij and they will do at least for the near future.

So... Who do the war gods favor in this war as of say the last 2-3 months? Who is having a good time and who is having a bad time?

SAF: Okay time?
FSA: Kinda shitty time?
IS: Very shitty time?
Kurds: Okay time?

Am I getting it or totally not?

The long-term prospects changed radically. There is a new player in the game. That is the biggest change. The Free Syrian Army is closely linked with Al-Nusra/Al Qaeda/Fatah Al-Sham. But now Turkey is directly fighting alongside the Free Syrian Army in northern Syria. The turkish influence assures that the FSA units supported are actually 'moderate' and not radical islamists. Thus you got 2 Free Syrian Armys now. The Al-Nusra dominated FSA in Idlib and the turkish FSA in northern Aleppo. The turkish FSA is the actually new player. This player will rise. It is likely that Turkey will route moderate rebels from Idlib to northern Aleppo through their territory, until there are only radical Islamists in Idlib left.

Syrian Arab Army: doing OK, arms are being provided by Russia, manpower by Hezbollah and Iran. Good long-term prospects. A serious winner.

ISIS: doing bad. Less income, less territory, nowhere to hide. They are being pushed back to core territories currently. Point is: They're withholding professional western arms and elite forces for later to fight in their core territories along the Euphrate river. They're not dead yet. Far From. But they will have no future in Syria.

turkish FSA: will become a major player in northern Syria.

Al-Nusra FSA: declining. Bad long-term prospects. Will bleed dry if Erdogan wants them to. Is an enemy all major players can agree to get rid of.

Kurds/YPG: stable. Might get soon in favour of the USA over the turkish FSA who proved being bad playmates. If the USA stop all support on turkish FSA, there will be more to get for them.


3 goats, 3 ISIS fighters. I'm just not sure, who is who.

[Dukat]

Military Situation in Syria according to the russian Ministry of Defence, September 19th, 2016.


Syrian Army & Allies started bombing rebel held eastern Aleppo with incendiary ammunition and announced a major offensive on the city. Incendiary ammunition in urban Aleppo is a new quality. Of course they bombed the water supply facility before.

Footage: Phosphor dripping off a roof from a residential house in rebel held eastern Aleppo, September 22nd, 2016

[Dukat]

This is how ISIS is burying its own fighters, Iraq, forgot the location, 2016.

[Dukat]

Footage: Rebels of Fastaqim Union (FSA) counter government forces (Liwa al-Quds Brigades) after they entered on occupied parts of Handarat Camp, east Aleppo pocket, September 24th, 2016.

[Dukat]

Syrian Arab Army & Allies are pushing into eastern Aleppo from all sides since September 24th, 2016.

[pizzzaman]

YPG will not advance west of Euphrate. YPG is supposed to withdraw towards the eastern Euphrate bank. They don't really do. Without coordination with the turkish dominated FSA, they'd leave a vacuum easily to be filled by ISIS again. They want to keep Manbij and they will do at least for the near future.

I thought Kurdish forces wanted to unite at Al-Bab looking at recent maps of their advance from Afrin:

[Dukat]

They move slowly from Afrin towards Al-Bab, they do this for longer now. They're moving like 1 meter per hour, reducing their own losses to zero. The kurds in Afrin got not that much manpower, they're cut off from the rest of Rojava. Once the turkish supported FSA rolls down south from the turkish border, there is no way to defend such long small strip ranging from Tal Rifaat to Manbij while having the syrian army in the back. At best the kurds can hope that accomplishing some facts will dicourage Erdogan and hamper his process. IMHO


Allahu Akbar!?

"How do you make a technical?" - "Just place the AA gun on the back of the truck" - "Say no more, bro..."

[VonMudra]

Kinda amazed you guys don't get it.  The Afrin Kurds are not moving to take Al Bab or anything like that.  What they are doing is shunting southeast along the SAA (whom are not attacking them and are basically in a truce), in order to connect to the SDF if the SDF manages to organize and undertake a major offensive on Manbij.  The point would be to extend that corridor to allow a link up, and it is being extended in that direction in order to be as far south as possible in case the Turkish-backed rebels actually do start moving on Al-Bab (hard to say if they will- for the past week or two they've been locked in see-saw combat with ISIL, taking villages and then losing them again to IS counter attacks).

Also, the Aleppo map you posted was rather wrong- at the time you posted it the only major combat in Eastern Aleppo was the Handarat Refugee Camp battles- in which Quds force conquered the area, but then were forced right back out by a rebel counter attack.  That said, today the SAA is announcing the official start of a ground offensive on Eastern Aleppo, so we'll see what happens with that.

Also, the FSA north of Hama just managed to widen their salient to the east.  I still do not see them ever making it to Hama though.